Amgen's newer brands carry the load while MariTide chases a crowded field

The technology

Amgen is a diversified biologics company that makes money across bone health, cardiology, inflammation, rare disease and oncology. Its growth now comes from a set of newer brands. In the second quarter of 2026, Repatha sold $953 million (up 37%), Evenity $714 million, Tezspire $486 million and Imdelltra $288 million, per the Q2 release. CEO Robert A. Bradway said six growth brands made up nearly 70% of product sales.

The big bet is MariTide, an obesity drug in a broad phase 3 program called MARITIME that covers weight loss, heart outcomes, heart failure and sleep apnea. Three more phase 3 studies in type 2 diabetes are due to start in 2026, Amgen said.

The odds

Most of Amgen's revenue comes from approved products, so pipeline odds matter mainly for growth after 2027. MariTide sits in phase 3, where the industry base rate of reaching a filing is 57.8%. MariTide must compete with products already on the market from Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Lilly's revenue rose 48% in the second quarter, per its release, and Novo sold DKK 3.2 billion of its Wegovy pill in the same period, per its report.

Nearer term, dazodalibep in Sjogren's and Tezspire in eosinophilic esophagitis have phase 3 studies due to complete in the second half of 2026. Setbacks this year include a partial FDA hold on subcutaneous blinatumomab and several stopped early programs, per the Q1 release.

The money

Amgen raised its 2026 revenue guide to $38.2 billion to $39.4 billion and its non-GAAP EPS guide to $22.30 to $23.50. It had $14.0 billion in cash and $57.3 billion in debt at June 30. Second-quarter free cash flow was $3.5 billion. It plans up to $3.0 billion of buybacks this year but bought none in the second quarter, and it paid a dividend of $2.52 per share in June.

The risks

Biosimilar erosion comes first. Prolia fell 32% and Xgeva 34% in the second quarter, per the release, and Amgen expects erosion to speed up in 2026.

Tavneos comes second. The FDA has proposed withdrawing approval, citing liver injury cases and alleged untrue statements in the original application. A $2.4 billion intangible asset rides on the outcome, per the 10-Q.

Data security comes third. Amgen disclosed a material cyber incident in July in which patient health information and proprietary data were taken from third-party cloud systems. It says it does not expect a material financial impact.

Our read

Amgen is executing the classic large-cap playbook: grow newer brands faster than old ones decline, and use cash flow to carry a heavy debt load. So far it is working, with revenue up 10% in the second quarter and guidance raised. The company's long-term story depends on MariTide finding a place in an obesity market where two rivals already sell injectables and pills at scale. The Tavneos case and the cyber investigation are smaller risks, but both have open endings. A new CFO, Thomas Dittrich, took over on September 1, and the third-quarter report will be his first.

The most useful numbers in that report will be the gap between growth brands and the biosimilar-hit bone drugs, and any update on how MariTide's phase 3 studies are enrolling. Amgen has not published readout dates for MARITIME, so investors are waiting on the company's own timelines before they can judge when the obesity bet starts to pay.