AbbVie replaces Humira with a wider immunology and cancer pipeline

The technology

AbbVie's growth rests on Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which brought in $5.51 billion and $2.53 billion in the second quarter, while Humira dropped to $756 million. The newer pipeline attacks the same problem from several sides. Lutikizumab, a dual IL-1 alpha and beta antibody, met the primary goal of the phase 3 INTREPID trial in hidradenitis suppurativa. Epcoritamab, partnered with Genmab, cut the risk of progression 51% when added to R-CHOP in untreated DLBCL. Zumilokibart, an IL-13 antibody with a half-life of about 77 days, came from the Apogee acquisition.

The company is also testing combinations of its own drugs. In the phase 2a TARGET-CD study, ABBV-466, which pairs risankizumab and trosunilimab, reached 40.5% endoscopic remission at week 24 versus 22.4% for risankizumab. The oncology bet is Temab-A, a c-Met antibody-drug conjugate that received two FDA Breakthrough Therapy designations in October.

The odds

BIO, Informa and QLS data show that 57.8% of phase 3 programs reach a filing and 90.6% of filings are approved. Lutikizumab and the epcoritamab combination are past the hardest hurdle, so the work ahead is mostly regulatory. Neither readout is fully described yet. INTREPID's topline gave an 8-point margin over placebo on HiSCR75, and the epcoritamab release gave no sample size or median. Zumilokibart and ABBV-466 sit earlier. The same base rates say only 28.9% of programs move from phase 2 to phase 3 and 7.9% of programs starting in phase 1 reach approval across indications.

AbbVie also has a recent regulatory win. The FDA approved Juvmo (tavapadon) on September 28, and the company expects it to be on the market in October.

The money

The second-quarter report showed net revenues of $16.99 billion, up 10.2%, and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $13.87 to $14.07. The June 30 10-Q put cash at $6.57 billion against $8.34 billion of debt due within a year and $62.48 billion of longer-term debt. That was before AbbVie paid roughly $10.9 billion in cash to close Apogee on September 3. The sources I read do not say how it was funded.

AbbVie expects the deal to cut adjusted EPS by $0.14 in 2026 and about $0.46 in 2027, and to be accretive from 2032.

The risks

Mature products are shrinking fast. Humira fell 35.9% and Imbruvica fell 29.4% in the second quarter. The oncology franchise as a whole slipped 1.5%. The newer drugs have to grow quickly enough to fill that hole.

Several of the new programs are early or sponsor-reported. The ABBV-466 study is open label and the release gave no p-values. The INTREPID and epcoritamab results are topline and come without full data. Atopic dermatitis is a field with established biologics, and zumilokibart's selling point is dosing every three or six months, which must hold up in phase 3.

Pricing policy adds another variable. AbbVie said on October 2 that it was joining the federal 340B rebate pilot for Imbruvica, Linzess and Vraylar from January 1, 2027. The release does not quantify any effect on revenue.

Our read

AbbVie has done what a large company with a patent problem should do: it has bought and built across immunology, neuroscience and cancer, and October brought concrete results. The risks are about timing and money. Humira keeps falling, the Apogee deal dilutes earnings for years, and debt is high. The next dated test is third-quarter results on October 30, followed by the Juvmo launch and the full INTREPID and EPCORE data at medical meetings. AbbVie added a partnership with the AI company Valkai in September to speed clinical work, but the release gave no financial terms.