--- title: "Neurocrine now has three products and much less cash" url: "https://aibio.space/companies/neurocrine-biosciences/desk-view/" publisher: "aibio.space (Biotech Investor Relations News)" date: "2026-10-31" tickers: "NASDAQ:NBIX" summary: "The Soleno purchase added a third growth drug and drained most of the cash. The 2027 depression and schizophrenia readouts come next." --- Opinion Desk view by the aibio.space Neurocrine desk. Updated October 22, 2026. Every figure links to its source. This is analysis, not a recommendation to trade. [How desk views are written](https://aibio.space/disclosures/). Neurocrine Biosciences ยท Opinion 2026-10-22 # Neurocrine now has three products and much less cash The Soleno purchase added a third growth drug and drained most of the cash. The 2027 depression and schizophrenia readouts come next. ## The technology Neurocrine makes small-molecule drugs for brain and hormone disorders. Its main product, Ingrezza (valbenazine), treats tardive dyskinesia and chorea in Huntington's disease and sold [$716 million in the second quarter](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000035/q2-2026xearningsrelease.htm). Crenessity (crinecerfont) treats classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia and sold $184 million. Vykat XR (diazoxide choline), bought with Soleno Therapeutics in May, treats hyperphagia in Prader-Willi syndrome and contributed $54 million from the closing date. The research side leans on muscarinic drugs and a depression candidate. The company lists Phase 3 programs for osavampator in major depression and direclidine in schizophrenia, a Phase 2 study of the dual M1/M4 agonist NBI-1117570, and an early obesity peptide, NBIP-'2118, in its [first-quarter report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000025/q1-2026xearningsrelease.htm). ## The odds Three of the company's drugs are already on the market, so the odds question is about what comes next. The two Phase 3 programs are expected to read out in 2027, per the CEO's comments in the [second-quarter release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000035/q2-2026xearningsrelease.htm). The BIO, Informa and QLS study of 2011 to 2020 found that [57.8% of Phase 3 programs advanced to an NDA or BLA and 52.4% of programs entering Phase 3 reached approval](https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf). Those are all-disease averages, and neuropsychiatry trials are known for placebo-response problems. The study cited here does not break out psychiatry, so treat these as a rough starting point. The commercial odds look better. Crenessity went from $14.5 million in the first quarter of 2025 to [$153.3 million a year later](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000025/q1-2026xearningsrelease.htm), and Vykat XR's pro forma full-quarter sales of $94 million were above the $92 million Soleno reported for the fourth quarter of 2025. ## The money Neurocrine is profitable and just spent most of its cash. Second-quarter revenue was $959 million, GAAP net income was $144 million, and non-GAAP net income was $297 million. Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were [$481.7 million at June 30](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000037/nbix-20260630.htm), down from $2.54 billion at the end of 2025, after the company paid $2.36 billion net of cash acquired for Soleno. It holds a five-year, $1.0 billion revolving credit facility, which was undrawn at quarter-end after a $600 million borrowing in May was repaid in June. The 10-Q says capital resources should cover needs for at least 12 months. Guidance for 2026 includes Ingrezza sales of $2.825 billion to $2.875 billion and GAAP R&D of $1.275 billion to $1.325 billion. ## The risks Ingrezza is about three-quarters of product revenue, and the 10-Q warns that lower negotiated prices for competitor Austedo may [increase pricing pressure and affect formulary coverage](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000037/nbix-20260630.htm). Ingrezza qualifies for the small biotech exception from Medicare price negotiation until 2027, with any negotiated price taking effect in 2029 if it is selected. The second risk is the two 2027 Phase 3 readouts, which carry the usual failure rates and are the main pipeline value drivers the company points to. The third is leadership continuity: the board replaced its chief medical officer on Sept. 28, about 16 months after the previous change, [without giving a reason](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000045/nbix-20260925.htm). ## Our read Neurocrine looks like a company that has moved from one product to three, and has paid a lot to get there. Revenue grew 39% in the second quarter, and the Soleno purchase added a first-in-class rare disease drug with patents expected to run into the mid-2040s. The tradeoff is financial flexibility. Cash fell by about $2 billion in six months, expenses are rising faster than Ingrezza sales, and the company is carrying $2.2 billion of acquired intangibles. The revolver gives breathing room, though it comes with leverage and interest coverage covenants. For investors the next real tests are the third-quarter Vykat XR number and the 2027 Phase 3 results. A strong depression or schizophrenia result would give the company a second leg in neuropsychiatry beyond Ingrezza. A miss would leave it leaning on three commercial products and the Medicare price outlook for the largest of them. --- Source page: https://aibio.space/companies/neurocrine-biosciences/desk-view/. Facts in aibio.space stories are checked against company filings and releases; opinion is labelled. Cite as: aibio.space, "Neurocrine now has three products and much less cash", 2026-10-31, https://aibio.space/companies/neurocrine-biosciences/desk-view/