--- title: "Alkermes is betting its sleep purchase and orexin drugs can outrun Vivitrol" url: "https://aibio.space/companies/alkermes/desk-view/" publisher: "aibio.space (Biotech Investor Relations News)" date: "2026-10-31" tickers: "NASDAQ:ALKS" summary: "Revenue grew 27% in the second quarter, partly from the Avadel deal. The orexin pipeline has yet to deliver Phase 3 results, and a generic Vivitrol is…" --- Opinion Desk view by the aibio.space Alkermes desk. Updated October 22, 2026. Every figure links to its source. This is analysis, not a recommendation to trade. [How desk views are written](https://aibio.space/disclosures/). Alkermes · Opinion 2026-10-22 # Alkermes is betting its sleep purchase and orexin drugs can outrun Vivitrol generics Revenue grew 27% in the second quarter, partly from the Avadel deal. The orexin pipeline has yet to deliver Phase 3 results, and a generic Vivitrol is licensed for January. ## The technology Alkermes sells four proprietary medicines in neuroscience: Vivitrol for alcohol and opioid dependence, Aristada and Lybalvi for schizophrenia and bipolar I disorder, and LUMRYZ for narcolepsy. It also earns [manufacturing and royalty revenue](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526318844/alks-ex99_1.htm) on Vumerity and on long-acting Invega products. These are the cash engines. The growth story is the orexin 2 receptor, a target for wakefulness. Alixorexton is the lead drug, now in [Phase 3 Brilliance studies](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526270280/alks-ex99_1.htm) in narcolepsy types 1 and 2 and in a Phase 2 study in idiopathic hypersomnia. A second molecule, ALKS 7290, produced [early ADHD data](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526396065/alks-ex99_1.htm) in September that the company itself calls exploratory. ## The odds Alkermes has two kinds of risk. The commercial portfolio has [proven demand](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526318844/alks-ex99_1.htm), so the questions there are about generics and growth. The pipeline carries ordinary development risk. Use the [published base rates](https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf). Across indications, 57.8% of Phase III programs reach an NDA or BLA submission, and 52.4% of programs that enter Phase III are eventually approved. Only 28.9% of Phase II programs move to Phase III. For ALKS 7290, a drug that has completed a Phase 1b, the all-indication chance of approval from Phase I is 7.9%. The [Phase 2 ADHD study](https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07755410) with about 312 patients is the real test. LUMRYZ in idiopathic hypersomnia is a safer bet on paper. Its Phase 3 study [met the primary endpoint](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526218150/alks-ex99_1.htm), and 90.6% of NDA and BLA submissions are approved, though a supplemental filing differs from an original one. ## The money At June 30, Alkermes held [$691.6 million in cash and investments](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526318844/alks-ex99_1.htm), up from $538.2 million at March 31. That compares with $1.32 billion at year-end 2025 before the Avadel deal, which was paid for with cash and [$1.525 billion of term loans due in 2031](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526047682/d43532dex991.htm). The company signed [Amendment No. 1 to its credit agreement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526345901/alks-ex10_1.htm) on Aug. 12. [Revenue guidance for 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526318844/alks-ex99_1.htm) is $1,730 million to $1,840 million, and adjusted EBITDA guidance is $370 million to $410 million. GAAP is weaker: Alkermes now guides to a net loss of $95 million to $115 million because of acquisition accounting and a contingent-consideration charge. Second-quarter revenue of $496.0 million was up 27%. ## The risks Generic competition is the first. Alkermes licensed Teva to market generic Vivitrol from [Jan. 15, 2027](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000095017023045176/alks-ex99_1.htm), and in July it [ended its Amneal authorized-generic agreement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526298004/alks-20260706.htm). Vivitrol is guided to $460 million to $480 million of 2026 sales. Second, LUMRYZ cannot be promoted for idiopathic hypersomnia [before March 1, 2028](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526218150/alks-ex99_1.htm). Third, the orexin class is young, and a safety problem in one drug could hurt the others. Fourth, leadership is changing: Blair Jackson took over as CEO on Aug. 1, and the board [added Anne Whitaker](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526392527/alks-ex99_1.htm) in September. Debt from the Avadel deal also limits flexibility. ## Our read Alkermes has [positive adjusted EBITDA](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526318844/alks-ex99_1.htm) and four proprietary products that together brought in $411.7 million in the second quarter. It is now trying to turn a sleep acquisition and an orexin pipeline into a second act. So far the company has done what it said it would: it [closed Avadel](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526047682/d43532dex991.htm), started Phase 3, and delivered ADHD data when promised. The next tests are not close together. [Vibrance-3 data](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526318844/alks-ex99_1.htm) come toward year-end, the [LUMRYZ filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000119312526218150/alks-ex99_1.htm) for idiopathic hypersomnia is due by the end of 2026, and a [generic Vivitrol](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520262/000095017023045176/alks-ex99_1.htm) is possible from January. The longer-term picture depends on Phase 3 narcolepsy results that have not been reported. This is analysis, not advice. --- Source page: https://aibio.space/companies/alkermes/desk-view/. Facts in aibio.space stories are checked against company filings and releases; opinion is labelled. Cite as: aibio.space, "Alkermes is betting its sleep purchase and orexin drugs can outrun Vivitrol", 2026-10-31, https://aibio.space/companies/alkermes/desk-view/